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Lake County Severe Weather Threat Sunday

posted Nov 16, 2013, 8:14 PM by Brian Donahoe   [ updated Nov 17, 2013, 5:46 AM ]
November 17th, 2013

Issued Saturday, November 16, 2013 - 5:30 p.m.

The National Weather Service (NWS) is monitoring an upper level disturbance that is tracking across the central United States, which is expected to bring strong winds, intense rain, severe thunderstorms, and possible tornadoes to the northeastern Illinois area on Sunday, November 17th. Lake County Emergency Management participated in a regional conference call earlier this afternoon with the NWS.

While unusual, severe weather is not unheard-of during this time of year. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has included all of Lake County in a "moderate risk" area for severe weather on Sunday. Over the past fifteen years, in the month of November there have only been ten other times when a "moderate risk" area for severe weather was issued for ANY location in the country, and in seven of those prior instances, fatal tornadoes occurred. As depicted in the graphic below, from the Storm Prediction Center, there is a 45% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point within the pink-shaded area. Within the area covered by the black hatch marks, there is a greater than 10% chance of significant severe weather (EF-2 or stronger tornadoes) within 25 miles of any point.lake_county_weather_map

Storms are expected to develop along a warm front early Sunday morning (3:00 - 6:00 a.m.)near the Iowa / Illinois border, and then move very quickly eastward. While storms are possible anytime on Sunday, they are most likely in Lake County from mid-morning (10:00 a.m.) through the afternoon (6:00 p.m.). The most likely threat with these storms will be strong winds, with thunderstorm gusts of more than 60mph possible. Isolated tornadoes, including significant (EF-2 or greater) tornadoes, are also likely to occur somewhere within the "moderate risk" area. Even in areas where thunderstorms do not occur, wind gusts of 45mph or higher are possible.

It is important for people to review their severe weather preparedness plans NOW, and to carefully monitor weather conditions on Sunday. Know what action you would take if a tornado warning is issued for your community, and be sure that you have a way of receiving such warnings. An all-hazards alerting weather radio, cellphones, and outdoor warning sirens are all capable of providing warning information to you.

The most current forecast information is always available at the Chicago NWS website, www.weather.gov/chicago.

A multi-media briefing from the Chicago NWS Office with detailed information about the severe weather threat for Sunday is available through the NWS website athttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=98173&source=0.

Lake County SKYWARN and Lake County Emergency Management personnel will continue to carefully monitor the evolving weather situation, and are prepared to activate the Lake County Emergency Operations Center if necessary.

If you need emergency assistance from the police or fire department, please call 9-1-1. Please call the non-emergency phone number for your specific community to report any storm-related damage to home or business.

We do not anticipate providing any additional update unless the situation changes substantially.

*** PUBLIC INFORMATION ***

This "Emergency Management Partners Update" contains only PUBLIC INFORMATION, and is suitable for broad public dissemination, including forwarding to constituents and colleagues as appropriate.

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